Lumumba

Blog query: Let’s play “What if” history: imagine that Lumumba had managed to overcome the challenges to his rule and stay in power. How do you think his presidency would have unfolded? Would he have succeeded in keeping Zaire from falling apart? Would he have established the country as a democracy or would he most likely have become a dictator ruling for many years?

Lumumba’s passion for independence would have forced him to strive for democracy. However, passion is no substitute for political experience and this lack of experience was his downfall. The UN had agreed with the Belgians not to intervene in Katanga so Lumumbas only other option to maintain control would be to use the Russian military. If he had succeeded in getting Russian support to invade Katanga he would have used that same support to put down the military rebellion and reduce Mobutu’s power. Mobutu, having seen his chances for power undermined, would have turned to the US, who had already approached him to overthrow Lumumba because of his relationship with the Soviets. Lumumba and Mobutu would have clashed, starting a civil war that I don’t know who would have won.

If Lumumba had won, I believe he would have tried to create a democratic republic. Even when debating the value of using the Soviet military he did not think Communism was the right choice for Zaire.